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Saturday, April 06, 2013

Well, I've gone through the runners like Mo Farah at the Olympics, and studied the form with a hard head, a magnifying glass and a sharp pin, and having weighed everything up, I've come to the conclusion that this is the easiest Grand National in years. And also the most difficult. There are about twenty-five horses who couldn't win if you strapped them to the back of a motorbike and built ramps over every fence, so you can rule out more than half the field straightaway. Unfortunately I can't choose between the others.

One thing I will say, however, is that Seabass, the hotly-tipped favourite, won't win. Ten million people might have backed it, but they're all wrong.

So that's that cleared up. More interesting are the horses which abide by my most closely guarded racing secret - you know, the one I revealed on this blog eight and a half years ago. Namely that every horse who has a wind operation goes on to win their next race. That brings in Across The Bay and Chicago Grey, both of whom had breathing operations in the winter, and both of whom have obliged by winning since. The question is whether that form will continue. My heart is screaming at me to back Across The Bay at around 50-1, but my head says Chicago Grey.

As does one of my patients. We had a tip at work from a patient who claims to have paid for three holidays in the past year from the proceeds of his betting, and he's told us to back Chicago Grey. Which I have done. But I'm not sure it'll win. I actually prefer one of the other top five. So here are my predictions...

1st. Cappa Bleu at 12-1. He finished fourth last year, has slightly less weight to carry, has had a better prep, and should be ridden more effectively. I can't see how he can possibly lose. No, really.

2nd. Join Together at 25-1. Loves long distances, and is proven over the big fences, so is virtually guaranteed to finish, and at a pretty good price. If Lisa had any money, I'd steal it and put it all on this one each-way.

3rd. Chicago Grey at 12-1. Impossible to leave out, and actually he may well win, but stubbornness prevents me from naming him as the winner. He'll be in the first three though.

4th. Colbert Station at 14-1. His odds have been drifting out this morning, which is worrying, but at one point last night, I had this one down as the winner. He's got very little experience, but I think that simply means that we don't know how good he is. He'll probably either win or come nowhere, and my money's on the former.

5th. Soll at 40-1. I have to put one outsider in, and there's no other choice. Soll has no weight to carry, should stay the distance, can jump well, and is on offer at big odds. I've backed him to place.

So there you go. I can't quite believe that I've left out On His Own, who has an outstanding chance of being in the first five, and I like Rare Bob and Balthazar King too, but you have to draw the line somewhere. And I've drawn it through Seabass. He'll be like a fish out of water, and should be a net loss for the punter. You heard it here first.


Zoe Sprake said...

Having just looked at the results online, I see you were right about Seabass.

Jon Cheshire said...

Having taken your advise on Across the Lasagne, and Chicago Donkey would it be possible for you to send over one of your shirts, as I seem to have lost mine.

Jon Cheshire said...

Obviously that should have been advice

Phil said...

As with all professional psychics, I'm obliged to point out that my predictions are for entertainment purposes only, and I can't be held responsible for duff information or financial loss.

Although if you win, I get a share, ok?